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6/20/09 Coffee futures prices are selling off recently in spite
of the recent International Coffee Organization's reduction in
its 2008-9 production estimates by a million bags and the USDA's
most recent estimates that show the potential for the tightest
ending stocks to usage ration in 30 years. Coffee option
premiums are high.
6/5/09 Coffee futures prices had their highest close since
September this week as the expectation for a smaller Columbian
crop, the estimated 15% smaller crop from Brazil compared to a
year ago and the weakening US Dollar are helping prices. Cold
temperatures are expected this weekend but not cold enough to do
any damage. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/30/09 Coffee futures prices rose to a 7 month high as Brazil's
harvest draws near. The expectation is for a smaller crop.
Coffee option premiums are high.
5/22/09 Coffee futures prices are still near their 7 month highs
as the South American harvest is on the way and yields are
expected to be less than last years. Coffee option premiums are
high. It may be preferable to use bull call spreads for bullish
strategies.
5/15/09 Coffee futures prices are rallying again based on the
expectation of colder weather in Brazil over the weekend. Prices
just hit a 6 month high and too much rain has hurt the coffee
yields in Columbia. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/8/09 Coffee futures prices are flying to the upside this week
to the 125 level. Recent reports showed that coffee demand is
staying steady in spite of weak global economic conditions.
Coffee option premiums are high.
4/30/09 Coffee futures prices are consolidating sideways as the
strong US Dollar is limiting any rally attempts. Coffee option
premiums are high.
4/23/09 Coffee futures prices rallied recently to the 117 level
helped by the International Coffee Organization's estimate that
the world coffee crop will be 127 million bags and the
consumption will be 128 million bags. It is also being helped by
the Columbian trucker strike that is expected to affect prices. Coffee option premiums are
high.
4/10/09 Coffee futures prices are still trending higher and are
near the 1.20 level which is a 2 month high. Coffee option
premiums are high.
3/27/09 Coffee futures prices are still moving higher as
commodities gain some momentum. The recent coffee rally is
occurring with little news. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/20/09 Coffee futures prices exploded this week to the upside
as inflation is most likely right around the corner as we exit
this worst deflationary spiral since the Great Depression. The
recent move by the Fed to print a trillion dollars and then buy
treasuries devalued the US Dollar significantly. Coffee option
premiums are high.
3/13/09 Coffee futures prices rallied big time this week along
with many other commodities as the stock market had its best 3
days in a row since November. Coffee has been in a steep
downtrend and needs this move to sustain itself before prices
can begin an uptrend. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/7/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week along with the
rest of the soft markets as the US stock markets continue to
fall to new lows. Coffee option premiums are high.
2/27/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week in spite of the
bullish information about coffee's steadily growing demand and
the expectation of a smaller production year cycle. Coffee
option premiums are high.
2/13/09 Coffee futures prices sold off this week as the
International Coffee Organization estimates that 2008-9
production will rise from 132.5 to 133.4 million bags. Also
hurting prices was a strong US Dollar and a slowing world
economy. Coffee option premiums are high.
2/6/09 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways in a 10 cent
range in spite of Brazil's estimate that the coffee crop will be
lower by 10 million bags from last year's crop production.
Coffee option premiums are high.
1/30/09 Coffee futures prices continue to hold their uptrend in
spite of other commodity markets selling off. This year is
supposed to be the off year for coffee farmers who have to live
with the one good year followed by a drop off based on the
coffee trees production cycle. Coffee option premiums are high.
1/16/09 Coffee futures prices are holding the rally to 2 month
highs as high quality Arabica is pretty scarce sending buyers
into the market to pay a premium for near term supplies. A
smaller crop is expected this year in Brazil. Coffee option
premiums are high.
1/10/09 Coffee futures prices began to rally after a major
decline based on the Brazilian government estimating that the
upcoming crop will be 13 million bags lower than this year's
crop because of dry weather conditions. Coffee option premiums
are high.
12/27/08 Coffee futures prices are trading sideways this week as
thin trading and no fundamental news was available to move the
markets much. Coffee option premiums are high.
12/19/08 Coffee futures prices have been reacting to the ups and
downs of the US Dollar this week. Strong days for the US Dollar
have pressured prices and weak days have strengthened the coffee
markets. Coffee option premiums are still high.
12/12/08 Coffee futures prices rallied with the rest of the
commodities this week. The USDA estimates that the 2008-9 world
ending stocks at 39.6 million bags which is 29% of normal use
which equals tight global supplies. Coffee option premiums are
high.
12/5/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling with the other
commodities and the strengthening US Dollar. December has
historically been the strongest month for coffee as
drought potential increases in Summer months in the southern
hemisphere. Coffee option premiums are above average.
11/30/08 Coffee futures prices are mostly trading sideways as
uncertainty about the global economy limit upside moves in
commodities. Coffee option premiums are above average.
11/21/08 Coffee futures prices are coming down again following
the rest of the commodity markets as oil and stocks fall and the
US Dollar rallies. Coffee option premiums are above average.
11/7/08 Coffee futures prices rallied to a 2 week high but began
to sell off as the US Dollar strengthened and slow global demand
is pressuring prices. Coffee option premiums are high.
11/1/08 Coffee futures prices are still coming down being helped
along by the collapsing value of the Brazilian Real and
commodity index fund liquidations. The falling Real makes
storing coffee a risky proposition for farmers who are dealing
with abundant harvest figures. Coffee option premiums are high.
10/24/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling with the rest
of the commodity markets and improving fundamentals out of
Brazil. Commodity prices are falling with the stock market as
the massive deleveraging continues along with the repatriation
of US Dollars from other continents. Argentina is nationalizing
pensions creating a mass exodus of cash. Coffee option premiums
are high.
10/10/08 Coffee futures prices are still falling and at contract
lows. The overall weakness in the commodity sector is pulling
most commodities lower. Demand destruction based on expectations
of a global recession are keeping the bulls at bay. The demand
season for coffee in the northern hemisphere is starting with
the cold weather but supplies are robust. Coffee option premiums
are high.
10/6/08 Coffee futures prices fell below 115 as the deflationary
pressures hurt commodity prices. The scramble by investors
towards liquidity, fears of a global recession and the strong US
Dollar are hurting coffee prices. Coffee option premiums are
high.
9/26/08 Coffee futures prices were trying to rally this week
based on outside markets and the potential for the financial
bailout to fix the markets. The bailout would most likely lead
to a weaker US Dollar and higher inflation which is bullish for
coffee futures. Coffee option premiums are above average.
9/19/08 Coffee futures prices sold off to 12 month lows this
week as none of the coffee warehouses were effected by hurricane
Ike and the Brazilian harvest is very large. Coffee option
premiums are high.
9/12/08 Coffee futures prices sold off this week to 3 week lows
based on the Brazilian harvest coming to a close and the
estimated total is 45.8 million bags. The overall weakness in
commodities is also helping pull down the price of coffee.
Coffee option premiums are still high.
9/5/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this week based on the
Brazilian harvest being behind last year's progress. Only 78% of
the crop is harvested versus last year's 96% progress. Roasters
were aggressive buyers on price dips. Coffee option premiums are
high.
8/29/078 Coffee futures prices are rallying this week based on
75% of the Brazilian crop being harvested but harvest is moving
more slowly than expected because of the slowly maturing crop.
Coffee option premiums are high.
8/22/08 Coffee futures prices are range bound again this week
but towards that upper end of the range. There is no damage to
the South American crop and the weather for the harvest has been
just about perfect. The recent run in commodity prices is
helping pull up coffee prices. Coffee option premiums are high.
8/15/08 Coffee futures prices are weak again based on the
overall weakness in commodity prices the strong US Dollar and
the Brazilian harvest going along uninterrupted. Coffee option
premiums are high.
8/8/08 Coffee futures prices are still trading within a 10 cent
range sideways as the Brazilian coffee harvest is running along
without any problems so far. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/25/08 Coffee futures prices fell this week to a new one month
low based on the Brazilian harvest going along without and
weather delays and the forecast for warm non-damaging weather
for the next week. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/18/08 Coffee futures prices fell again this week in the wake
of the broad based commodity sell off led by crude oil. The
coffee market lacks any new news which can often led to selling
pressure. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/11/08 Coffee futures prices fell this week because there is
not much potential for a damaging freeze in the next week's
forecast. Coffee option premiums are high.
7/4/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this week as cold weather
may threaten crops and massive short covering caused by fund
buying. The softs sector in general has been strong with the
exception of cotton recently. Coffee option premiums are high.
6/27/08 Coffee futures prices are still rising this week based
on fund buying and short covering. The frost season is upon the
Southern hemisphere and potential yield damage can occur. Coffee
option premiums are high.
6/20/08 Coffee futures prices are still
rising this week as cold temperatures in Brazil's growing
regions are getting shorts to cover. Coffee option premiums are
high.
6/13/08 Coffee futures prices are still
range bound as bullish news has been offset by no weather
problems and no near term worries about any damaging freezing in
Brazil. Coffee option premiums are high.
6/6/08 Coffee futures prices rallied this
week based on potential damaging temperatures in the South
American coffee areas. The big rally in crude oil is also
helping pull up other various commodity prices. Coffee option
premiums are high.
5/30/08 Coffee futures price are
consolidating sideways this week as the Brazilian harvest
begins. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/23/08 Coffee futures prices sold off this
week as an international conference of coffee producers is being
held in Brazil. Brazil is the OPEC of coffee and often holds
coffee off of the market in order to stabilize prices. Coffee
option premiums are still high.
5/15/08 Coffee futures prices are holding
support this week. The International Coffee Organization expects
127 million bags of world production in 2008-09 and consumption
to be 125 million bags in 2008 and 127 million bags in 2009.
Coffee option premiums are high.
5/9/08 Coffee futures prices are up this
week to the top of the 3 month long 15 cent channel that it has
been trading in. The estimates from Brazil for the crop this
year are predicting 45.5 million bags but private estimates are
higher at 50 million bags. Coffee option premiums are high.
5/1/08 Coffee futures prices have been down
again this week in spite of rumors that Brazil was going to pay
farmers a subsidy to not sell their coffee. Summer in the
Northern hemisphere is Winter in Brazil so the frost season is
coming up soon. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/25/08 Coffee futures prices have been
selling off this week based on the potential huge Brazilian
harvest and the weak overall commodity market. The US Dollar has
been rallying this week and has a direct inverse relationship
with many commodity markets. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/18/08 Coffee futures prices have had a
volatile two sided trading pattern this week. The funds were
buying aggressively pushing prices higher but the idea of a huge
Brazilian and Vietnamese crop is putting a lid on prices. Coffee
option premium are high.
4/11/08 Coffee futures prices are trapped in
a sideways consolidation pattern in expectation of Brazil's
harvest. Brazil estimates its harvest will be 44.2 million bags
but independent analysts say it will be higher. Brazil has a
habit of holding coffee off of the market in order to prop up
prices. Brazil is to coffee futures what OPEC is to crude oil
futures. Coffee option premiums are high.
4/4/08 Coffee futures prices had their
lowest close in 4 months based on Brazil getting ready to
harvest soon and a lack of any news. The summer in the US is the
freeze season for Brazil so expect volatility in the coming
months. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/28/08 Coffee futures prices are
consolidation sideways to down this week with no real
fundamental news to move the markets. Commodities are soft in
general right now. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/21/08 Coffee futures prices kept falling
this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity funds
liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in stocks and
to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the
confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point cut
surprised investors because a full 100 basis point cut was
expected. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/14/08 Coffee futures prices rallied back
from the collapse in prices last week as small speculators and
the commodity funds moved back into the market. Also helping
prices was the new low in the US Dollar in expectation of
another 50 to 75 basis point interest rate cut. Summer in the US
is winter in Brazil so volatility often increases in the coming
months. Coffee option premiums are high.
3/7/08 Coffee futures prices collapsed as
the record long funds liquidated futures. Helping the fall was a
broad based commodity price corrections. Major US roasters
Folgers and Maxwell House raised prices again and an economic
recession may lessen demand. Brazil is expecting a large coffee
crop in the next few months. Coffee option premiums are very
high.
2/29/08 Coffee futures prices hit another
contract high this week after a brief pullback. Vietnam is still
hoarding supplies and Brazil is worried about continued dry
weather affecting the coffee yields. The softs sector, excluding
orange juice and lumber seem to be playing catch up with the
other commodities like grains, metals and energies who are at
all time highs. Coffee's all time high is over $3. Coffee option
premiums are very high.
2/22/08 Coffee futures prices hit new
contract highs this week based on the lack of Brazilian moisture
and major fund buying. The weak US Dollar and a perceived draw
down in global supplies is also supporting coffee prices. Coffee
futures prices are still around 50% below their all time high
and look cheap to speculators compared to grains, metals and
energies which are all at or near all time highs. Vietnam, the
largest producer of robusta coffee, is currently hoarding
supplies artificially elevating prices for the second most
popular drink in the world. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/15/08 Coffee futures prices are still
rallying and hit contract highs this week. Brazil is having lack
of moisture issues and the drought at the end of last year may
have already put a dent in yields. The weak US Dollar and fund
buying is also helping push prices higher. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/8/08 Coffee futures prices broke out to a
contract high after expectations of a slightly smaller Brazilian
coffee crop. Coffee futures have been a fund favorite with the
other soft commodities such as cocoa, sugar and cotton recently.
Many other commodities are near all time highs but the softs are
mostly near the lows to average ranges for prices. Coffee option
premiums are high.
2/1/08 Coffee futures prices have been
trading toward the upper end of their twelve month range based
on unknown damage to the Brazilian coffee crop caused by the
drought during the flowering stage. Brazil produces about 1/3 of
all of the world's coffee. Coffee option premiums are high.
-T & K Futures and Options Inc.
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