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8/20/10 Sugar futures prices broke through the recent highs this
week in spite of the expectations of a huge global crop from
Brazil and India. India's crop is expected to be at least 23
million tons which will leave plenty of supply available for
exports.
8/13/10 Sugar futures prices rallied this week from a 3 week low
as excessive rains in Brazil is causing shipping delays for
sugar and other commodities. The delays are expected to persist
over the near term. Sugar has rallied roughly a cent this week.
8/6/10 Sugar futures prices are coming down as higher output
from Brazil and India ( the number one and number two producers)
should be ample considering the current demand for sugar. Sugar
option premiums are high.
8/2/10 Sugar futures prices are still trending higher in spite
of an expectation for a 5 million ton surplus this season.
India's harvest is projected at 26 million tons and consumption
at 23 million tons for the coming harvest.
7/24/10 Sugar futures prices rallied nearly a cent this week as
the US Dollar continues to weaken and other soft market
commodities have been running higher recently. High unleaded gas
prices may also be keeping prices up for the near term.
7/10/10 Sugar futures prices traded higher this week as dry
weather in Brazil might hurt the yields of their sugar cane crop
next harvest. The recent USDA supply and demand report showed US
ending stocks up from 764,00 to 952,000 tons.
7/2/10 Sugar futures prices are trading within a 1.5 cent range
recently as bearish crop pictures and a slower global economy
battle with demand for ethanol out of Brazil. The recent sell
off in the US Dollar may help support prices.
6/25/10 Sugar futures prices rallied this week in spite of the
recent estimate of the USDA saying worldwide production will be
up 8% in 2010-2011. Sugar prices hit a 2 month high.
6/11/10 Sugar futures prices rallied this week after losing 50%
of its value over the last couple of months. The recent USDA
report showed US ending stocks come down from 844,000 to 764,000
short tons. The world outlook is for an increase in supplies as
many producers tried to take advantage of the 30 year highs in
prices by planting more.
6/4/10 Sugar futures prices rallied this week in spite of the
overall weakness in the commodity sector and the estimation the
there would be a world production surplus for the first time
since the 2007-2008 season for sugar supplies.
5/28/10 Sugar futures prices sold off this week as the USDA
estimated that world production would go up from 157.2 to 163.8
million tons in 2010-11.
5/21/10 Sugar futures prices came down with the rest of the
commodity markets this week as the European problems stemming
from Greece and the other PIIGS are expected to hurt demand for
many commodities. Investors seem to be choosing cash over stocks
and commodities for now. There are rumors of Pakistan and China
buying sugar.
5/14/10 Sugar futures prices are still coming down this week.
The recent USDA report showed US ending stocks at 894,000 tons
down from 1.23 million tons.
5/7/10 Sugar futures prices sold off again this week to a 14
month low as the Greece problems pressured many markets as
investors attempt to decrease their risk appetites by pushing
assets into gold, US Dollars and US Treasuries as a safe haven.
4/25/10 Sugar futures prices are still selling off from the
recent 30 year highs to the lowest close in the last 11 months.
The recent strength in the US Dollar is also helping keep prices
down.
4/16/10 Sugar futures prices bounced after selling off for the last 10
weeks. The US Dollar is begining to weaken and high unleaded gas
prices may push sugar producers to turn to ethanol instead of
using it as a food.
4/9/10 Sugar prices are still collapsing from the recent 30 year
highs. Sugar hit a new 10 month low this week in spite of the
idea that many economies around the globe are improving which
should in turn increase demand for physical commodities.
3/27/10 Sugar prices came crashing down again this week as the
global deficit is looking more like it will be offset by some
huge sugar cane crops from Brazil. Sugar prices hit a 10 month
low this week.
2/26/10 Sugar futures prices fell this week from the 30 year
highs to a 9 week low as the idea that prices got a little ahead
of themselves based on the global tight supplies. Many buyers
were unwilling to pay the recent high prices for raw sugar. The
recent strength in the US Dollar is also pressuring many
commodity markets. Sugar option premiums are high.
2/12/10 Sugar future prices rallied this week as the idea that
Europe will help Greece with its financial problems weakened the
US Dollar and caused most commodity markets to rally.
Agrimoney.com increased its estimate of the 2009-10 world sugar
deficit form 8.3 to 11.9 million tons.
2/5/10 Sugar futures prices came down this week along with many
of the other commodity prices as the recent strength in the US
Dollar is expected to diminish demand for commodities. India's
government said that its sugar mills had to sell some of their
sugar supplies every week. Mills had been hoarding sugar in the
hopes of getting higher prices.
1/30/10 Sugar futures prices continue to rally in spite of most
of the rest of the commodity markets selling off. The European
Union is considering increasing exports of sugar to take
advantage of high prices and to help with the global tight
supplies situation. Sugar prices hit contract highs this week.
1/22/10 Sugar futures prices rallied this week to contract
highs, unlike most of the other commodity markets in spite of
the rise in the US Dollar and the idea that China is trying to
hold back its economy by raising rates and increasing the amount
of capital reserves its banks must keep will slow demand for
many commodities.
1/15/10 Sugar futures prices seemed to be stabilizing as the
Indian government is allowing sugar sales again and the recent
rise in the US Dollar is pressuring prices.
1/8/10 Sugar futures prices rallied to another contract high
this week in spite of the recent strength in the US Dollar as
tight supplies still look to be an issue for the near future.
1/1/10 Sugar future prices rallied to 28 year highs as the
Indian government extended its ban on trading sugar futures on
its exchange until September of 2010 because of the extremely
tight global supply situation. Sugar options premiums are high.
12/11/09 Sugar futures prices rallied this week as the global
supply situation is still very tight. The rally occurred in
spite of energy market price declines and the recent strength in
the US Dollar.
12/4/09 Sugar futures prices fell this week as the upbeat US
Jobs report pushed the US Dollar dramatically higher.
11/28/09 Sugar futures prices are still trading sideways to down
this week as the idea that the global supply deficit may already
be factored into prices is battling the idea that higher energy
costs will push Brazil into using its sugar production for
ethanol at the expense of sugar for human consumption. Sugar
option premiums are high.
11/20/09 Sugar futures prices are still coming down this week in
spite of the US Dollar hitting another contract low. Indian
farmers are withholding sugar from the mills because of
expectations of higher sugar prices. The USDA estimated the
2009-10 world sugar production to be at 153.5 million tons, up
6% from a year ago.
11/13/09 Sugar futures prices sold off this week from the highs
to the recent support levels as the USDA report estimated that
US ending stocks grew from 876,000 tons to 1,016,000 tons.
11/6/09 Sugar futures prices sold off this week in spite of the
global tight sugar supplies and rising prices in India's sugar
because of the scarcity. Sugar option premiums are high.
10/24/09 Sugar futures prices sold off from the 28 year highs as
the Indian government estimates that its sugar production will
increase from 16 million tons to 17.5 million tons. This is up
from the earlier estimate of 15 million tons.
10/12/09 Sugar futures prices sold off from the 28 year highs as
profit taking takes over since the massive run to 1981 price
highs. Sugar prices have seen massive fund and speculative
buying and selling over the recent few weeks.
9/25/09 Sugar futures prices fell as the US Dollar strengthened
and the commodity markets in general are selling off. The global
supplies are still tight and conditions are not expected to
improve any time soon.
9/18/09 Sugar futures prices are still near the highs as the
lack of supplies is battling to keep up with the global demand.
Also helping prices are the weakening US Dollar and the idea
that the global economy is improving.
9/11/09 Sugar futures prices are selling off from the highs.
India's government recently told sugar mills that there is a
limit to the amount of sugar that they can store. Sugar
stockpiles cannot be larger than a 15 day supply in an attempt
to make sugar available to the public. Sugar option premiums are
high.
9/4/09 Sugar futures prices sold of from the recent 28 year
highs in spite of the recent overabundance of rain in Brazil and
the lack of abundance of rain in India and the recent prediction
by the International Sugar Organization increasing the amount of
the deficit from 4.75 to 8.40 million tons. Sugar option
premiums are high.
8/21/09 Sugar future prices are trading sideways near the recent
highs at around 22 cents per pound. The lack of new bullish or
bearish news has the market consolidating sideways for now.
Sugar option premiums are high.
8/7/09 Sugar futures prices are at the contract highs as the
expectation for India to increase imports due to a lack of rain
and potential Brazilian crop problems. Sugar option premiums are
high.
7/31/09 Sugar futures prices are near the highs as rain issues
in India and Brazil may curb production and end up causing a
world production deficit. Sugar option premiums are high.
7/20/09 Sugar futures prices are still up this week in spite of
lower gasoline prices and the recent rains in India are likely
to help the sugar cane crop. The weakening US Dollar is also
helping sugar prices. Sugar option premiums are high.
7/10/09 Sugar futures prices sold off this week as the slow
world economy and lower ethanol production may hurt demand. The
recent USDA report showed US ending stocks down from 459,000 to
359,000 tons. Sugar option premiums are high.
7/4/09 Sugar futures prices may have made a top as the new
contract highs were followed by a sell off. The markets are
expecting a global deficit in sugar supplies. Sugar option
premiums are high.
6/21/09 Sugar futures prices sold off this week along with the
rest of the soft markets as the US Dollar rebounds from the lows
and crude oil and unleaded gas sell off. Sugar option premiums
are high.
6/5/09 Sugar futures prices are down again from the recent highs
and profit taking is blamed. Global supplies are still
relatively tight. Sugar option premiums are high.
5/30/09 Sugar futures prices recently sold off from the highs as
overbought markets often due. The Indian government recently
suspending the trading of sugar futures contracts for the rest
of 2009 in an attempt to protect domestic supplies. High crude
oil prices are also helping prices. Sugar option premiums are
high.
5/22/09 Sugar futures prices are near the highs as a world
production deficit in 2008-9 crops and higher ethanol demand are
expected to use up supplies. The USDA is expecting the lowest
stocks to usage ration in 16 years. Sugar option premiums are
high.
5/15/09 Sugar futures prices are coming down from the recent
highs in spite of the USDA report showing US ending stocks down
form1.192 to 289,000 tons and the governments restrictions on
imports. Sugar option premiums are high.
5/8/09 Sugar futures prices are still running higher to the
highest close in 8 months. Helping prices is the estimate that
Brazil will produce more ethanol this year. Sugar option
premiums are high.
4/30/09 Sugar futures prices are rallying based on the idea that
Brazil's sugar crop is going to be smaller than expected. Sugar
option premiums are high.
4/23/09 Sugar futures prices are trading in a one cent range
between 1250 and 1350. This is occurring as bullish information
such as India being a net importer clash with bearish
information such as falling energy prices. Sugar option premiums
are high.
4/10/09 Sugar futures prices are moving sideways as lower energy
prices battle with expectations that Indian sugar output may
fall 11 million tons. The USDA estimates that US ending stocks
up from 981,000 to 1.29 million tons. Sugar option premiums are
high.
3/27/09 Sugar futures prices are trading in a sideways pattern
as a slow world economy is making the demand picture for sugar
hard to predict.
3/20/09 Sugar futures prices rallied 1.50 cents this weeks as
inflation may soon replace the deflationary cycle that we are
currently in, which is the worst since the Great Depression. The
recent move by the fed to print a trillion dollars and use them
to buy treasuries has significantly decreased the value of the
US Dollar. Sugar option premiums are high.
3/13/09 Sugar futures prices are trading sideways in spite of
the recent USDA supply and demand report showing a drawdown in
world ending stocks of 85,000 short tons. Sugar option premiums
are high.
3/7/09 Sugar futures prices sold off this week as the poor
economy and the massive sell off in the stock market is
pressuring prices. Sugar option premiums are high.
2/27/09 Sugar futures prices are rallying this week to 5 month
highs. The International Sugar Organization forecast for a 4.3
million ton deficit in the 2008-9 crop year helped prices rally.
India, the world's largest consumer of sugar, is expected to
become a net importer of sugar this year. Also helping prices is
the rally in unleaded gas prices which stimulates cane ethanol
production in Brazil. Another bullish factor is Pepsi's
announcement that it will stop using high fructose corn syrup in
its drinks. Sugar option premiums are high.
2/13/09 Sugar futures prices are still heading higher as the
USDA report showed US ending stocks of sugar down form 1.072 to
1.066 million tons. Sugar looks to be the leader in the soft
market right now. Sugar option premiums are high.
2/6/09 Sugar futures prices are rallying as the softs sector of
the commodity market is gaining strength. Sugar production in
India was down 20% from October to January. A world production
deficit is expected in 2008-9. Sugar option premiums are high.
1/30/09 Sugar futures prices are still holding recent gains as
the uptrend in sugar is still holding. Sugar futures prices have
been rallying in spite of weakness in the unleaded gas markets.
Sugar option premiums are still high.
1/16/09 Sugar futures prices were steady this week. The USDA
estimates that US ending stocks were up from 961,000 to 1,072
tons. Sugar option premiums are high.
1/10/09 Sugar futures prices rallied based on the expectation
that India and Thailand will have smaller sugar crops this year
and strong gasoline prices. Sugar option premiums are high.
12/27/08 Sugar futures prices are holding steady in spite of
lower gasoline prices and demand destruction around the world.
Sugar option premiums are high.
12/19/08 Sugar futures prices have been strong recently as the
US Dollar has been giving back 60% of its recent rise. Sugar
option premiums are high.
12/12/08 Sugar futures prices rallied along with the rest of the
commodity markets as the US Dollar fell sharply from its highs.
The USDA estimates that world ending stocks increased from
907,000 to 961,000 tons. Sugar option premiums are high.
12/05/08 Sugar futures prices fell with the rest of the
commodity markets as the global economy worsens and the US
Dollar runs higher. Sugar option premiums are high.
11/30/08 Sugar futures prices are trading sideways as unleaded
gas prices seem to be stabilizing. Sugar option premiums are
high.
11/21/08 Sugar futures prices are still coming down with
unleaded gas. Sugar option premiums are high.
11/7/08 Sugar futures prices are still range bound and rallies
are met with harsh resistance. Sugar rallied to a one month high
but sold back down as the US Dollar strengthened and gas prices
came down. Sugar option premiums are above average.
11/1/08 Sugar futures prices are holding their lower levels as
unleaded gas and corn prices are still low. FO Licht estimates
the sugar consumption is up 1.8% in 2008-09 and will outpace
production by 472,300 tons next year. Sugar option premiums are
high.
10/24/08 Sugar futures prices are coming down with the rest of
the commodity markets as the massive deleveraging of the stock
and commodity markets. The sell off in unleaded gas is expected
to hurt ethanol demand especially when combined with the
expectation of a global recession. The repatriation of US
Dollars back into the US is helping the US Dollar rally to 3
year highs. Sugar option premiums are high.
10/10/08 Sugar futures prices are selling off again pressured by
the USDA US ending stock report showing stocks up from 505,000
tons to 650,000 tons. The decrease in unleaded gas prices and
the stronger US Dollar is also pressuring prices.
10/6/08 Sugar futures prices are selling off with the rest of
the softs. Sugar prices are below 12 cents and the fear of a
global recession, flight to liquidity and the strong US Dollar
are hurting prices. Sugar option premiums are high.
9/26/08 Sugar futures prices are range bound this week in spite
of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association estimate that
sugarcane production is down 4% from a year ago and 59% of that
is being used to produce ethanol. Sugar option premiums are
high.
9/19/08 Sugar futures prices sold off with the rest of the softs
this week as a rush to liquidity hit the commodity markets.
Sugar option premiums are high.
9/12/08 Sugar futures prices sold off again this week following
crude oil down. The USDA estimates that global supply will fall
behind consumption by 3.5 million tons in 2008-09. Sugar option
premiums are high.
8/29/08 Sugar futures prices are trying to rally this week based
on the potential damage that may occur in Cuba if Hurricane
Gustav hits the sugar plantations with high winds. Also helping
prices is the run in gasoline prices. Sugar option premiums are
high.
8/22/08 Sugar futures prices rallied this week based on the
correction in the US Dollar and the huge run in the price of
unleaded gas and crude oil futures. Sugar option premiums are
high.
8/15/08 Sugar futures prices are selling off based on the USDA
report showing a build in ending stocks from 607,000 to 767,000
short tons. The sugar market is having problems rallying because
of the extreme weakness in energy/gasoline prices. Sugar option
premium are high.
8/8/08 Sugar futures prices have rallied 4 cents since June
based on India's sugar production dropping by 6% from last year
and estimates that it may fall by 25% because farmers are
planting more profitable crops. Sugar option premiums are high.
7/25/08 Sugar futures prices sold off again following unleaded
gas futures prices precipitous drop. The strength in the US
Dollar also helped the decline. Sugar option premiums are above
average.
7/18/08 Sugar futures prices sold off in the wake of the broad
based commodity sell off led by crude oil. Sugar futures prices
fell by over 150 ticks this week. Sugar option premiums are
high.
7/11/08 Sugar futures prices are still rallying this week based
on the USDA estimates of the world ending stocks falling from
1,273,000 to 607,000 tons because of the strong demand for
ethanol. Sugar option premiums are high.
7/4/08 Sugar futures prices rallied again this week led by the
high prices for corn and unleaded gas and the overall strength
in the commodity markets. The Brazilian use of sugar for ethanol
at the expense of food is pushing prices. Sugar option premiums
are high again.
6/27/08 Sugar futures prices rallied this week above 13 cents
based on fund buying and the weakening US Dollar. Sugar option
premiums are average.
6/20/08 Sugar futures prices are rallying
again this week based on massive fund buying and record unleaded
gas and corn prices. Sugar option premiums are average.
6/13/08 Sugar futures prices rallied almost
a penny this week as The USDA supply and demand report reduced
its estimate of US ending stocks from 1.336 to 1.273 million
tons. Sugar option premiums are average.
6/6/08 Sugar futures prices rallied this
week based on the strength in the energy markets, the falling US
Dollar and the central-south Brazil sugar cane crush being down
9% because of wet conditions. Sugar option premiums are average.
5/30/08 Sugar future prices are still
selling off but may be near a major bottom as commercial
interest are mounting. Sugar option premiums are average.
5/23/08 Sugar futures prices are selling off
again to a yearly low. There is no bullish news in the sugar
market and the trend is your friend until some comes around.
Sugar option premiums are average.
5/15/08 Sugar futures prices are trading
sideways. The International Sugar Organization estimates that
the world produced a 8 million ton surplus in 2007-08 which is
down from 9.3 million tons. Expectations for 2008-09 is for a
small deficit. Sugar option premiums are average.
5/9/08 Sugar futures prices rallied this
week based on record high gasoline prices and a weakening US
Dollar. The USDA supply and demand report showed US ending
stocks at 1.336 million tons down from 1.757 million tons in
2007-08. Sugar option premiums are about average.
5/1/08 Sugar futures prices are selling off
again this week based on a lack of news being considered bearish
and Brazil's expectation of a larger crop than originally
expected. Sugar option premiums are average.
4/25/08 Sugar futures prices are selling off
this week based on a lack of any bullish news and the decline in
unleaded gas prices from its high. There is a relationship
between gas prices and unleaded gas because the sugar in Brazil
is used to make ethanol. Sugar option premiums are above
average.
4/18/08 Sugar futures prices have been
rallying this week based on fund buying and the new record high
for unleaded gas. Brazil is predicting that 58% of its sugar
crop will be turned into ethanol. Sugar option premiums are
above average.
4/11/08 Sugar futures prices have been
rallying this week following unleaded gas prices and an overall
strength that is returning to the commodity markets. The massive
sell off during St. Patrick's Day through March 21st was based
on panic and a need for liquidity and not supply and demand. The
USDA reduced ending stocks of sugar from 1.978 million tons to
195. Sugar options premiums are becoming fair again.
4/4/08 Sugar futures prices have been a yawn
recently as prices are drifting sideways. Sugar did rise
slightly this week in the wake of the strong unleaded gas price
move. This relationship based on ethanol had been more
correlated until recently. Sugar option premiums are average now
based on the lack of volatility in sugar futures prices.
3/28/08 Sugar futures prices have been
languishing this week without any new fundamental news to
attract buyers. High unleaded gas prices have been supportive
and sugar option premiums are above average.
3/21/08 Sugar futures prices kept falling
this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity funds
liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in stocks and
to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the
confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point cut
surprised investors because a full 100 basis point cut was
expected. Sugar option premiums are high.
3/14/08 Sugar futures prices bounced back
after the correction. The new lows for the US Dollar and
Brazilian ethanol production have affected prices. The US ending
stocks went from 2.029 million tons to 1.978 according to the
USDA's estimates. Sugar future prices are still way off from the
all time highs around 66 cents. Sugar option premiums are high.
3/7/08 Sugar futures prices sold off 2 cents
this week leading the massive fund liquidation in the softs
sector. China is expecting sugar deficit because of poor growing
conditions this year. Sugar option premiums are high.
2/29/08 Sugar futures prices rallied to
contract highs this week based on inflationary fears and all
time high unleaded gas prices. The potential 50 basis point
interest rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting pressures the
dollar which also helped buoy prices. Sugar option premiums are
high.
2/22/08 Sugar futures prices followed crude
oil and unleaded gas up this week to new contract highs. Some
private firm estimates say that the global sugar surplus is
dwindling rapidly because of ethanol demand and a growing world
population. Sugar option premiums are still fair.
2/15/08 Sugar futures prices made a contract
high this week in spite of India's recovery rates being higher
offsetting some of their reduced harvest output. There was also
major fund buying in the May and July sugar futures contracts.
The global push to use bio fuels is helping use up the surpluses
of sugar around the globe. Crude oil and unleaded gas futures
rallied this week lending support to sugar prices. Sugar option
premiums are expanding but still relatively fair.
2/8/08 Sugar futures prices broke out to the
upside based on higher gasoline prices and an explosion in a
sugar refinery in Georgia. Higher consumption by India and China
are expected by some analysts to create a deficit in sugar
supplies soon. Sugar futures prices are near 13 cents. Sugar
option premiums are expanding quickly.
2/1/08 Sugar futures prices are
consolidating sideways around 12 cents. Brazil is the world's
largest exporter of sugar and they are producing ethanol with
the sugar because of its higher profit margin. This means that
there is less sugar to export as a food. Many countries are
converting sugar cane fields into wheat fields because of the
record wheat prices. Sugar option premiums are above average.
-T & K Futures and Options Inc.
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