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Gold Futures-Gold Options- Weekly Blog

 

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5/15/08 Gold futures prices look as if they have found a bottom for now. South Africa gold production is down 10.1% in the first quarter of 2008 form a year ago. Gold option premiums are high.

5/9/08 Gold futures prices rallied this week based on resumed weakness in the US Dollar. The world's largest gold mining company, Barrick Gold, expects to produce 7.8 million ounces this year and is profitable at $400 an ounce. Gold option premiums are high.

5/1/08 Gold futures prices sold off again this week to the $850 level based on the strength in the US Dollar and the potential for a cessation of interest rate cuts by the Fed. Gold option premiums are high.

4/25/08 Gold futures prices sold off again this week to break the $900 mark based on the US Dollar rally and lack of speculative buying. The US Dollar rally is hurting all of the metals because of the direct inverse relationship between futures prices and the movement of the US currency. Gold option premiums are high.

4/18/08 Gold futures prices are still trading sideways in a $50 range. A few bad US reports helped push the metal higher but the US Dollar began to rally killing the increase in gold futures prices as it did. Gold option premiums are high.

4/11/08 Gold futures prices are still languishing around $930 after bouncing some after the weak US employment figures and Barrick gold (the world's largest producer) estimated that its gold production will fall by 250,000 ounces in 2008. Gold option premiums are high.

4/4/08 Gold futures prices are holding near the $900 level after selling off over $100 an ounce over the last couple of weeks. The rally in the US Dollar and the flight to cash by many investors helped pull gold futures prices down. Also helping the decline is end of quarter liquidation by large commodity and hedge funds. Gold option premiums are high.

3/28/08 Gold futures prices kept within a roughly $50 range this week. There is still uncertainty in the markets and the US Dollar bounced a bit. Gold option premiums are high.

3/21/08 Gold futures prices kept falling this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity funds liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in stocks and to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point cut surprised investors because a full 100 basis point cut was expected. Gold option premiums are very high.

3/14/08 Gold futures prices hit an new all time high this week and seem to be comfortable above $1,000 an ounce. The main driver in gold futures prices seems to be the weakening US Dollar and investors' perception that gold is a good inflationary hedge. Famed commodity guru Jim Rogers is predicting $3,500 an ounce gold before this commodity bull market is done. Gold option premiums are very high.

3/7/08 Gold futures prices broke $1,000/oz. this week only to sell off $30 a contract. Gold futures prices had been held up by lack of electricity in many South African mines and the falling dollar. The inflation adjusted 1980 high would be around $2,239/oz. Gold option premiums are very high.

2/29/08 Gold futures prices hit another record high this week based on record oil prices and more potential rate cuts by the Fed. The US Dollar plummeted this week based on poor economic reports and a probable interest rate cut of 50 basis points at the next FOMC meeting. The IMF reported that they would allow gold sales by certain countries to pay debt. Gold option premiums are very high.

2/22/08 Gold futures prices hit a record high this week because of record crude oil prices and a broad based commodity rally. It was the largest weekly advance in gold futures prices in 18 months. The weak dollar, stronger than expected CPI and more problems in South African mines also buoyed gold prices. Gold option premiums are very high.

2/15/08 Gold futures prices have been volatile again this week. Talk on Wall Street that there may be no recession or at worst a mild one has taken money away from the perceived safety of gold back into the stock markets. In 2007 global demand for gold hit an all time high of $79.2 billion dollars. Allowing Chinese citizens to own gold was probably a decent portion of this number. Gold futures prices are around $917 an ounce. Gold option premiums are very high.

2/8/08 Gold futures prices have been extremely volatile this week. Gold futures prices sold off below $900 and rallied the very next day and are currently near $920 basis June. Barrick Gold Corp. (the world's largest producer of gold) sees gold spot prices at $1000 an ounce this year because of lower global spending by mining companies, slow mine permitting procedures, longer production times, a lack of skilled workers and higher capital costs. Gold option premiums are very high.

2/1/08 Gold futures prices rallied through the $940 level this week. The rally occurred because of the continued rate cuts, the weakening dollar combined with European Central Banks agreeing to limit gold sales to 500 tons per year until September 2008 and the South Africa Chamber of Mines said that the nation's gold production was down by 7.6% in the first quarter from a year ago. Gold option premiums are very high.

-T & K Futures and Options Inc.

 

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