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Crude Oil Futures-Crude Oil Options Weekly Blog

 

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6/21/09 Crude oil futures prices sold off sharply as Nigerian militant attacks on shell oil pipelines is offset by ideas that global demand may fall even more. Crude oil option premiums are high.

6/5/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied to a 6 month high as the weak US Dollar, improving economic news around the world clashes with ample supplies. Crude oil option premiums are high.

5/30/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied to the highest level in 6 months. North Korea's recent aggression, because of South Korea's insistence on checking all North Korean ships, may turn into conflict is pushing prices. Better economic conditions around the world are also helping. Crude oil option premiums are high.

5/22/09 Crude oil futures prices are near the highs for the year as Nigerian militants attacked two pipelines and a refinery fire in Pennsylvania helped push prices higher. Crude oil option premiums are high.

5/15/09 Crude oil futures prices are still up as the better than expected housing date and jobless claims reports are supporting the markets. This is happening in spite the an 18 year high in US oil stockpiles. The recent DOE report showed a drawdown of 4.7 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

5/8/09 Crude oil futures prices are rallying again near the $60 level based on positive economic news and the potential for a pick up in demand. The recent DOE report showed an increase in supplies of 600,000 barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

4/30/09 Crude oil futures prices are still consolidating sideways as the recent sell off was stifled by the swine flu outbreaks potential to slow the world economy. The recent DOE report showed crude oil supplies up 4.1 million barrels last week. Crude oil option premiums are high.

4/23/09 Crude oil futures prices are trading between $45 and $50 dollars as of late. No more OPEC cuts are expected at the next meeting and the global recession continues. Crude oil option premiums are high.

4/10/09 Crude oil futures prices are above $50 again in spite of the DOE report showing an increase of 1.7 million barrels last week. Crude oil option premiums are high.

3/27/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied to a 10 week high helped by the 5 day oil worker strike in Brazil and in spite of massive supplies and a build in the DOE numbers of 3.3 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

3/20/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied $8 this week as inflation may be coming soon as the deflationary cycle that we have been in is the worst since the Great Depression may be coming to an end. The recent move by the Fed to print a trillion dollars and then use them to buy treasuries significantly weakened the US Dollar. Crude oil option premiums are high.

3/13/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week as talk of a 1 million barrel a day cut from the OPEC members this weekend may actually happen. The compliance rate for the members is estimated at around 85% which is very good for the members. Crude oil option premiums are high.

3/7/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week  based on strength in the distillate markets and bullish DOE reports. Also helping push prices is the March 15 OPEC meeting that will likely lead to more cuts in production. Crude oil option premiums are high.

2/27/09 Crude oil prices rallied this week based on a strong drawdown in unleaded gasoline supplies. The DOE estimated that RBOB supplies were down 3.4 million barrels last week and refinery usage was down to 81.4%. Crude oil option premiums are high.

2/13/09 Crude oil futures prices sold off this week to a 2 month low in spite of an estimated 66% compliance by OPEC members to cut production and the expectation that they will cut production again after the March OPEC meeting. Crude oil option premiums are high.

2/6/09 Crude oil futures prices are trading sideways in a $15 range as poor demand number are being offset by OPEC production cuts. The most recent DOE report showed an increase of 7.2 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

1/30/09 Crude oil futures prices seem to be basing sideways between $33 and $50 per barrel. Bad economic news around the globe is keeping any rallies in check. The recent DOE report showed a build in crude oil supplies of 6.2 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

1/16/09 Crude oil futures prices are still selling off as contango rules the markets right now as it is more profitable to store crude oil to sell later than sell it right now. The DOE said inventories were up 1.2 million barrels last week and OPEC estimates that demand for crude oil will drop to 85.66 million barrels a day in 2009. Crude oil option premiums are high.

1/10/09 Crude oil futures prices sold off this week in spite of the escalation of violence with Israel and Palestine and the potential for another OPEC production cut in February. Crude oil option premiums are high.

12/27/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied off of its lows in spite of demand destruction from the largest users, US, Japan and China. The DOE report showed supplies down 3.1 million barrels last week. Crude oil option premiums are high.

12/19/08 Crude oil futures prices have made new lows this week near $35 per barrel in spite of OPECs cut of 2.2 million more barrels of production a day and the weakening US Dollar. The DOE said that supplies of crude oil were up 500,000 barrels last week. Crude oil option premiums are high.

12/12/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week with the rest of the commodity markets as the US Dollar continues to fall from its highs. OPEC may cut production again as crude oil prices are at a 5 year low. Crude oil option premiums are high.

12/5/08 Crude oil futures prices fell to near $40 this week as the OPEC cartel could not decide on production cuts and the global economy is still slowing. Crude oil option premiums are high.

11/30/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week as OPEC speaks of $75 crude oil being a fair price which hints to additional production cuts. Crude oil option premiums are high.

11/21/08 Crude oil futures prices are below $50 a barrel this week and many agencies are lowering demand estimates for next year. The most recent DOE report showed supplies up 1.6 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

11/7/08 Crude oil futures prices are near the lows this week after the sharp rise earlier based on Venezuela calling for an additional production cut by OPEC of 1 million barrels a day. The worldwide recession perception is limiting rallies. Crude oil option premiums are high.

11/1/08 Crude oil futures prices are still coming down based on the outlook for weakening global economy and the strong US Dollar. Crude oil prices are at 17 month lows. The DOE estimated a 500,000 increase in crude barrels last week. Crude oil option premiums are high.

10/24/08 Crude oil future prices are still coming down in spite of the OPEC attempt to prop up prices with another 1.5 million barrel a day production cut. Fears of a global recession and the massive deleveraging that is occurring in the stock and commodity markets is pressuring prices. The large repatriation of US Dollars back into the US is causing the dollar to rise to 3 year highs. Crude oil option premiums are high.

10/10/08 Crude oil futures prices are now in the $70's and a 12 month low. The DOE revised their forecast and said that global oil consumption would decrease from 650,00 barrels a day to 300,000. The DOE report showed an increase in supplies of 8.1 million barrels offsetting talk by OPEC to cut production. Crude oil option premiums are high.

10/6/08 Crude oil futures are selling off and are below $90. Fears of a global recession, the scramble for liquidity and the strong US Dollar are hurting crude oil prices. Crude oil option premiums are high.

9/26/08 Crude oil futures are selling off from the huge rally earlier in the week. The financial bailout may weaken the US Dollar which may help crude oil prices. The DOE report showed a drawdown of 1.5 million barrels last week and gas demand falling 3.5% from a year ago. Crude oil option premiums are high.

9/19/08 Crude oil futures prices sold off to $90 this week as the global financial crisis is causing a rush for liquidity and hurricane Ike only damaged 10 oil and gas platforms and closed Texas refineries. Crude oil hit a 7 month low. Crude oil option premiums are high.

9/12/08 Crude oil futures prices sold off for most of the week only to rally some as Hurricane Ike slams into Houston, TX. The OPEC meeting in Vienna ended with the members cutting production by 520,000 a day blaming slowing demand and excessive supplies. The DOE report showed a decrease of 6.5 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

9/5/08 Crude oil futures prices sold off this week as the Hurricane Gustav did not do any damage to the platforms or refineries. 15% of the refinery capacity was shut down because of the storm but the high US Dollar and the slowing global economy have pushed prices to a 5 month low. Crude oil option premiums are high.

8/29/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied again this week because Hurricane Gustav may hit land between Texas and Louisiana which would shut down potentially 3500 oil platforms. The DOE reported that crude oil supplies were down 100,000 barrels last week. Crude oil option premiums are high.

8/22/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week based on the US Dollar selling off and in spite of the unexpected build in DOE inventories of 9.4 million barrels. The tension between the US and Russia is increasing and this bounce happened from 3 month lows. Crude oil option premiums are high.

8/15/08 Crude oil futures prices are still selling off this week. This is occurring in spite of Russia's invasion of Georgia and Turkish pipeline terror attacks. The strong US Dollar and the perception of a weakening global economy is weighing on prices. The DOE report showed a drawdown in supplies of 400,000 barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

8/8/08 Crude oil futures prices have come down again this week. The market is focused on demand destruction especially in emerging markets caused by high crude oil prices. Crude oil is down around 20% from its earlier all time highs and has corrected by at least 20% a dozen times in the last 9 years. Iran said that they will continue pursuing nuclear development. The DOE said supplies were up 1.7 million barrels this week. Crude oil option premiums are high.

7/25/08 Crude oil futures prices have collapsed again this week to near the $120 level based on massive fund liquidation and the lack of damage caused by hurricane Dolly. Crude oil fell in spite of the drawdown reported by the DOE of 1.6 million barrels during last week. Crude oil option premiums are high.

7/18/08 Crude oil futures prices collapsed this week by more than $15 a barrel. The expectation of slower world demand because of the high prices was the catalyst for the move and the DOE report showed a larger than expected weekly build of 3 million barrels last week. The Oil worker strike in Brazil is not having an effect on oil prices. Crude oil option premiums are high.

7/11/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied to another high because of more militant attacks in Nigeria and the potential war between Iran and Israel. Iran has been testing its missile capabilities and there are rumors of Israeli jets flying in Iran air space. The DOE report showed a drawdown in crude oil supplies of 5.9 million barrels last week. Crude oil option premiums are high. 

7/4/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week to another new high as tensions between Israel and Iran may be coming to a boiling point. Iran is the second largest OPEC producer and nearly 20% of all of the oil is transported through the Gulf of Hormuz. Crude oil option premiums are very high.

6/27/08 Crude oil futures rallied to a new high as tensions between Israel and Iran heat up and the Federal Reserve Bank's inaction concerning interest rates helped prices. The Saudis pledged to raise production and Kuwait said they would increase by next year. The DOE report showed a build in supplies which is the first build in nearly 2 months. Crude oil option premiums are very high.

6/20/08 Crude oil futures sold off from all time highs this week as Saudi Arabia may raise production levels and China raised its fuel costs to Chinese consumers by 18%. The DOE report this week showed a drop in crude oil supplies of 1.2 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.

6/13/08 Crude oil futures rallied to another all time high this week as Israel issued a warning to Iran that they would attack defensively if nuclear operations continued. A potential strike in Nigeria between workers and Chevron and the drawdown is the DOE supply report this week is keeping prices high. The IEA said that the world is consuming 86.8 million barrels of crude oil a day. Crude oil options premiums are ridiculously priced.

6/6/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied to a new high this week based on predictions of supply not keeping up with demand and peak oil. Crude oil is also gaining strength based on more middle east tensions. Crude oil option premiums are ridiculous right now.

5/30/08 Crude oil futures prices are below the all time high as the US Dollar strengthens. News that Indonesia is leaving OPEC and the DOE report that supplies were down 8.8 million barrels this week did not prop up prices. Crude oil option premiums are high.

5/23/08 Crude oil futures prices hit another all time high this week over $135/barrel. Estimates that supply has peaked versus the inevitable increase in demand from China and Asia has helped give this rally some legs. The DOE reported that crude oil supplies were down 5.2 million barrels from the previous week. Crude oil option premiums are very high.

5/15/08 Crude oil futures prices hit another record high this week and corrected a bit. The IEA reduced its estimate for the global demand for crude oil because the record prices are curbing demand. Heating oil futures are pulling up the whole energy complex as Europe and Asia are showing extremely large demand for the diesel and heating oil. Iran is expected to decrease production within the next month. Crude oil option premiums are high.

5/9/08 Crude oil futures prices hit a record high this week over $126 per barrel. Nigerian violence, Iranian tensions and massive global demand are boosting prices. OPEC talk indicates that a increase in production might occur if prices continue to stay above $110. The DOE said that crude oil supplies were up 5.7 million barrels this week and refining capacity fell from 85.4% to 85%. Crude oil option premiums are high.

5/1/08 Crude oil futures prices fell from its record highs this week based on the strong dollar and the cessation of the strike in Scotland. The DOE also reported a build in inventories of 3.8 million barrels and refining capacity fell from 85.6% to 85.4%. Crude oil option premiums are high.

4/25/08 Crude oil futures prices spiked to another record high this week based on the US Navy firing warning shots at 2 Iranian speed boats in the Straits of Hormuz. The DOE estimates for crude oil inventories this week were up by 2.3 million barrels and there was an increase in refining capacity to 85.6% from 81.4%. Chinese demand for oil in March was up 8% from a year ago. Crude oil option premiums are high.

4/18/08 Crude oil futures prices hit another all time history of mankind high this week based on supply disruptions caused by Nigerian militants and a 1 million barrel a day pipeline in Tennessee going down for repairs this week. Three Mexican oil terminals were also shut down because of bad weather in the Gulf of Mexico. The DOE estimated that crude oil supplies were down 2.3 million barrels last week and refinery usage dropped from 83% to 81.4%. Crude oil option premiums are high.

4/11/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied to a new all time high this week after a surprise drawdown of 3.2 million barrels in the DOE report. Also helping to raise prices was a refinery fire in Finland that boosted heating oil futures and dragged crude up with it. Crude oil option premiums are high.

4/4/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied off of its recent lows this week based on more fighting in Iraq and the strength of unleaded gas which had a huge drawdown this week. The DOE report showed an increase of 7.4 million barrels of crude oil last week and refinery use increased. Crude oil option premiums are high.

3/28/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied again this week after the OPEC president said that crude oil prices will range from $80-110 in 2008. There was also pipeline damage in Iraq after terrorists blew up portions of the pipeline. Crude oil option premiums are very high.

3/21/08 Crude oil futures prices kept falling this week as Wall Street hedge funds and commodity funds liquidated futures positions to cover margin calls in stocks and to pay back borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point cut surprised investors because a full 100 basis point cut was expected. The Department of Energy reported crude oil inventories were up 133,000 barrels on the week. Crude oil option premiums are very high.

3/14/08 Crude oil futures prices hit another all time history of man kind highs again based on global demand and the crashing US Dollar. Crude oil futures prices went over $110 a barrel this week. In the US the DOE report showed another increase in supplies of 6.2 million barrels and prices still went up. At some point these prices will slow demand and prices will come down. Crude oil option premiums are very high.

3/7/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied to a new all time high of $106 based on OPEC's reluctance to increase output during the typically soft second quarter of the demand season. Builds in crude oil up 3.1 mm/bbl for the week did not put the bears in charge. In the bull camp US missile strikes in Somalia and UN putting more sanctions on Iran may have added some potential political tension premium in the market. Crude oil option premiums are high.

2/29/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied 12% this month to another all time high of $102 per barrel based on inflation concerns and global disruption concerns. Turkey invaded Northern Iraq. Iran threatened any country that imposes more sanctions on them would deal with consequences. There was a militant attack on oil production facilities in Nigeria. The DOE report showed a large build in weekly supplies of 3.2 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums are ridiculous right now.

2/22/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied to an all time high this week based on OPEC's decision to not raise production and maybe cutting production if oil goes below $85 by the March 5 meeting. The explosion in the Big Spring, Texas refinery also buoyed crude oil futures prices this week. That refinery produces around 70,000 barrels a day. Crude oil option premiums are very high.

2/15/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week based on Hugo Chavez warning that he wouldn't sell crude oil to the US because of the Exxon suit. The DOE report showed a build in supplies that was less than analyst expectations. This is usually when refiners begin to shift from heating oil to unleaded gas for the driving demand season in the Spring and Summer. Crude oil option premiums are high.

2/8/08 Crude oil futures prices are trading between $87 and $95 recently. This time of year is typically soft for energy prices and stockpiles had an unexpected build of 7 million barrels this week. Recession fears are also limiting any runs to the upside. A recession may mean less people taking a vacation this year and less demand for unleaded gas. Crude oil option premiums are high.

2/1/08 Crude oil futures prices sold off from its all time high of $ 100 to $90. Some market analyst believe that the world will see daily demand exceed daily output for the first time in history and crude oil futures prices may set new highs. The 1980 crude oil futures price spike, when factoring in inflation, would equate to about $102 crude oil futures prices in today's prices. Crude oil options volatility premium is very high currently. Crude oil option premiums are high. 

-T & K Futures and Options Inc.

 

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