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6/21/09 Crude oil futures prices sold off sharply as
Nigerian militant attacks on shell oil pipelines is
offset by ideas that global demand may fall even
more. Crude oil option premiums are high.
6/5/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied to a 6 month
high as the weak US Dollar, improving economic news
around the world clashes with ample supplies. Crude
oil option premiums are high.
5/30/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied to the
highest level in 6 months. North Korea's recent
aggression, because of South Korea's insistence on
checking all North Korean ships, may turn into
conflict is pushing prices. Better economic
conditions around the world are also helping. Crude
oil option premiums are high.
5/22/09 Crude oil futures prices are near the highs
for the year as Nigerian militants attacked two
pipelines and a refinery fire in Pennsylvania helped
push prices higher. Crude oil option premiums are
high.
5/15/09 Crude oil futures prices are still up as the
better than expected housing date and jobless claims
reports are supporting the markets. This is
happening in spite the an 18 year high in US oil
stockpiles. The recent DOE report showed a drawdown
of 4.7 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums
are high.
5/8/09 Crude oil futures prices are rallying again
near the $60 level based on positive economic news
and the potential for a pick up in demand. The
recent DOE report showed an increase in supplies of
600,000 barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.
4/30/09 Crude oil futures prices are still
consolidating sideways as the recent sell off was
stifled by the swine flu outbreaks potential to slow
the world economy. The recent DOE report showed
crude oil supplies up 4.1 million barrels last week.
Crude oil option premiums are high.
4/23/09 Crude oil futures prices are trading between
$45 and $50 dollars as of late. No more OPEC cuts
are expected at the next meeting and the global
recession continues. Crude oil option premiums are
high.
4/10/09 Crude oil futures prices are above $50 again
in spite of the DOE report showing an increase of
1.7 million barrels last week. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
3/27/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied to a 10
week high helped by the 5 day oil worker strike in
Brazil and in spite of massive supplies and a build
in the DOE numbers of 3.3 million barrels. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
3/20/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied $8 this
week as inflation may be coming soon as the
deflationary cycle that we have been in is the worst
since the Great Depression may be coming to an end.
The recent move by the Fed to print a trillion
dollars and then use them to buy treasuries
significantly weakened the US Dollar. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
3/13/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week
as talk of a 1 million barrel a day cut from the
OPEC members this weekend may actually happen. The
compliance rate for the members is estimated at
around 85% which is very good for the members. Crude
oil option premiums are high.
3/7/09 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week
based on strength in the distillate markets and
bullish DOE reports. Also helping push prices is the
March 15 OPEC meeting that will likely lead to more
cuts in production. Crude oil option premiums are
high.
2/27/09 Crude oil prices rallied this week based on
a strong drawdown in unleaded gasoline supplies. The
DOE estimated that RBOB supplies were down 3.4
million barrels last week and refinery usage was
down to 81.4%. Crude oil option premiums are high.
2/13/09 Crude oil futures prices sold off this week
to a 2 month low in spite of an estimated 66%
compliance by OPEC members to cut production and the
expectation that they will cut production again
after the March OPEC meeting. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
2/6/09 Crude oil futures prices are trading sideways
in a $15 range as poor demand number are being
offset by OPEC production cuts. The most recent DOE
report showed an increase of 7.2 million barrels.
Crude oil option premiums are high.
1/30/09 Crude oil futures prices seem to be basing
sideways between $33 and $50 per barrel. Bad
economic news around the globe is keeping any
rallies in check. The recent DOE report showed a
build in crude oil supplies of 6.2 million barrels.
Crude oil option premiums are high.
1/16/09 Crude oil futures prices are still selling
off as contango rules the markets right now as it is
more profitable to store crude oil to sell later
than sell it right now. The DOE said inventories
were up 1.2 million barrels last week and OPEC
estimates that demand for crude oil will drop to
85.66 million barrels a day in 2009. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
1/10/09 Crude oil futures prices sold off this week
in spite of the escalation of violence with Israel
and Palestine and the potential for another OPEC
production cut in February. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
12/27/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied off of its
lows in spite of demand destruction from the largest
users, US, Japan and China. The DOE report showed
supplies down 3.1 million barrels last week. Crude
oil option premiums are high.
12/19/08 Crude oil futures prices have made new lows
this week near $35 per barrel in spite of OPECs cut
of 2.2 million more barrels of production a day and
the weakening US Dollar. The DOE said that supplies
of crude oil were up 500,000 barrels last week.
Crude oil option premiums are high.
12/12/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week
with the rest of the commodity markets as the US
Dollar continues to fall from its highs. OPEC may
cut production again as crude oil prices are at a 5
year low. Crude oil option premiums are high.
12/5/08 Crude oil futures prices fell to near $40
this week as the OPEC cartel could not decide on
production cuts and the global economy is still
slowing. Crude oil option premiums are high.
11/30/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week
as OPEC speaks of $75 crude oil being a fair price
which hints to additional production cuts. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
11/21/08 Crude oil futures prices are below $50 a
barrel this week and many agencies are lowering
demand estimates for next year. The most recent DOE
report showed supplies up 1.6 million barrels. Crude
oil option premiums are high.
11/7/08 Crude oil futures prices are near the lows
this week after the sharp rise earlier based on
Venezuela calling for an additional production cut
by OPEC of 1 million barrels a day. The worldwide
recession perception is limiting rallies. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
11/1/08 Crude oil futures prices are still coming
down based on the outlook for weakening global
economy and the strong US Dollar. Crude oil prices
are at 17 month lows. The DOE estimated a 500,000
increase in crude barrels last week. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
10/24/08 Crude oil future prices are still coming
down in spite of the OPEC attempt to prop up prices
with another 1.5 million barrel a day production
cut. Fears of a global recession and the massive
deleveraging that is occurring in the stock and
commodity markets is pressuring prices. The large
repatriation of US Dollars back into the US is
causing the dollar to rise to 3 year highs. Crude
oil option premiums are high.
10/10/08 Crude oil futures prices are now in the
$70's and a 12 month low. The DOE revised their
forecast and said that global oil consumption would
decrease from 650,00 barrels a day to 300,000. The
DOE report showed an increase in supplies of 8.1
million barrels offsetting talk by OPEC to cut
production. Crude oil option premiums are high.
10/6/08 Crude oil futures are selling off and are
below $90. Fears of a global recession, the scramble
for liquidity and the strong US Dollar are hurting
crude oil prices. Crude oil option premiums are
high.
9/26/08 Crude oil futures are selling off from the
huge rally earlier in the week. The financial
bailout may weaken the US Dollar which may help
crude oil prices. The DOE report showed a drawdown
of 1.5 million barrels last week and gas demand
falling 3.5% from a year ago. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
9/19/08 Crude oil futures prices sold off to $90
this week as the global financial crisis is causing
a rush for liquidity and hurricane Ike only damaged
10 oil and gas platforms and closed Texas
refineries. Crude oil hit a 7 month low. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
9/12/08 Crude oil futures prices sold off for most
of the week only to rally some as Hurricane Ike
slams into Houston, TX. The OPEC meeting in Vienna
ended with the members cutting production by 520,000
a day blaming slowing demand and excessive supplies.
The DOE report showed a decrease of 6.5 million
barrels. Crude oil option premiums are high.
9/5/08 Crude oil futures prices sold off this week
as the Hurricane Gustav did not do any damage to the
platforms or refineries. 15% of the refinery
capacity was shut down because of the storm but the
high US Dollar and the slowing global economy have
pushed prices to a 5 month low. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
8/29/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied again this
week because Hurricane Gustav may hit land between
Texas and Louisiana which would shut down
potentially 3500 oil platforms. The DOE reported
that crude oil supplies were down 100,000 barrels
last week. Crude oil option premiums are high.
8/22/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week
based on the US Dollar selling off and in spite of
the unexpected build in DOE inventories of 9.4
million barrels. The tension between the US and
Russia is increasing and this bounce happened from 3
month lows. Crude oil option premiums are high.
8/15/08 Crude oil futures prices are still selling
off this week. This is occurring in spite of
Russia's invasion of Georgia and Turkish pipeline
terror attacks. The strong US Dollar and the
perception of a weakening global economy is weighing
on prices. The DOE report showed a drawdown in
supplies of 400,000 barrels. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
8/8/08 Crude oil futures prices have come down again
this week. The market is focused on demand
destruction especially in emerging markets caused by
high crude oil prices. Crude oil is down around 20%
from its earlier all time highs and has corrected by
at least 20% a dozen times in the last 9 years. Iran
said that they will continue pursuing nuclear
development. The DOE said supplies were up 1.7
million barrels this week. Crude oil option premiums
are high.
7/25/08 Crude oil futures prices have collapsed
again this week to near the $120 level based on
massive fund liquidation and the lack of damage
caused by hurricane Dolly. Crude oil fell in spite
of the drawdown reported by the DOE of 1.6 million
barrels during last week. Crude oil option premiums
are high.
7/18/08 Crude oil futures prices collapsed this week
by more than $15 a barrel. The expectation of slower
world demand because of the high prices was the
catalyst for the move and the DOE report showed a
larger than expected weekly build of 3 million
barrels last week. The Oil worker strike in Brazil
is not having an effect on oil prices. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
7/11/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied to another
high because of more militant attacks in Nigeria and
the potential war between Iran and Israel. Iran has
been testing its missile capabilities and there are
rumors of Israeli jets flying in Iran air space. The
DOE report showed a drawdown in crude oil supplies
of 5.9 million barrels last week. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
7/4/08 Crude oil futures prices rallied this week to
another new high as tensions between Israel and Iran
may be coming to a boiling point. Iran is the second
largest OPEC producer and nearly 20% of all of the
oil is transported through the Gulf of Hormuz. Crude
oil option premiums are very high.
6/27/08 Crude oil futures rallied to a new high as
tensions between Israel and Iran heat up and the
Federal Reserve Bank's inaction concerning interest
rates helped prices. The Saudis pledged to raise
production and Kuwait said they would increase by
next year. The DOE report showed a build in supplies
which is the first build in nearly 2 months. Crude
oil option premiums are very high.
6/20/08 Crude oil futures sold
off from all time highs this week as Saudi Arabia
may raise production levels and China raised its
fuel costs to Chinese consumers by 18%. The DOE
report this week showed a drop in crude oil supplies
of 1.2 million barrels. Crude oil option premiums
are high.
6/13/08 Crude oil futures
rallied to another all time high this week as Israel
issued a warning to Iran that they would attack
defensively if nuclear operations continued. A
potential strike in Nigeria between workers and
Chevron and the drawdown is the DOE supply report
this week is keeping prices high. The IEA said that
the world is consuming 86.8 million barrels of crude
oil a day. Crude oil options premiums are
ridiculously priced.
6/6/08 Crude oil futures prices
rallied to a new high this week based on predictions
of supply not keeping up with demand and peak oil.
Crude oil is also gaining strength based on more
middle east tensions. Crude oil option premiums are
ridiculous right now.
5/30/08 Crude oil futures prices
are below the all time high as the US Dollar
strengthens. News that Indonesia is leaving OPEC and
the DOE report that supplies were down 8.8 million
barrels this week did not prop up prices. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
5/23/08 Crude oil futures prices
hit another all time high this week over
$135/barrel. Estimates that supply has peaked versus
the inevitable increase in demand from China and
Asia has helped give this rally some legs. The DOE
reported that crude oil supplies were down 5.2
million barrels from the previous week. Crude oil
option premiums are very high.
5/15/08 Crude oil futures prices
hit another record high this week and corrected a
bit. The IEA reduced its estimate for the global
demand for crude oil because the record prices are
curbing demand. Heating oil futures are pulling up
the whole energy complex as Europe and Asia are
showing extremely large demand for the diesel and
heating oil. Iran is expected to decrease production
within the next month. Crude oil option premiums are
high.
5/9/08 Crude oil futures prices
hit a record high this week over $126 per barrel.
Nigerian violence, Iranian tensions and massive
global demand are boosting prices. OPEC talk
indicates that a increase in production might occur
if prices continue to stay above $110. The DOE said
that crude oil supplies were up 5.7 million barrels
this week and refining capacity fell from 85.4% to
85%. Crude oil option premiums are high.
5/1/08 Crude oil futures prices
fell from its record highs this week based on the
strong dollar and the cessation of the strike in
Scotland. The DOE also reported a build in
inventories of 3.8 million barrels and refining
capacity fell from 85.6% to 85.4%. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
4/25/08 Crude oil futures prices
spiked to another record high this week
based on the US Navy firing warning shots at 2
Iranian speed boats in the Straits of Hormuz. The DOE estimates for crude oil
inventories this week were up by 2.3 million barrels
and there was an
increase in refining capacity to 85.6% from 81.4%. Chinese demand
for oil in March was up 8% from a year ago. Crude
oil option premiums are high.
4/18/08 Crude oil futures prices
hit another all time history of mankind high this
week based on supply disruptions caused by Nigerian
militants and a 1 million barrel a day pipeline in
Tennessee going down for repairs this week. Three
Mexican oil terminals were also shut down because of
bad weather in the Gulf of Mexico. The DOE estimated
that crude oil supplies were down 2.3 million
barrels last week and refinery usage dropped from
83% to 81.4%. Crude oil option premiums are high.
4/11/08 Crude oil futures prices
rallied to a new all time high this week after a
surprise drawdown of 3.2 million barrels in the DOE
report. Also helping to raise prices was a refinery
fire in Finland that boosted heating oil futures and
dragged crude up with it. Crude oil option premiums
are high.
4/4/08 Crude oil futures prices
rallied off of its recent lows this week based on
more fighting in Iraq and the strength of unleaded
gas which had a huge drawdown this week. The DOE
report showed an increase of 7.4 million barrels of
crude oil last week and refinery use increased.
Crude oil option premiums are high.
3/28/08 Crude oil futures prices
rallied again this week after the OPEC president
said that crude oil prices will range from $80-110
in 2008. There was also pipeline damage in Iraq
after terrorists blew up portions of the pipeline.
Crude oil option premiums are very high.
3/21/08 Crude oil futures prices
kept falling this week as Wall Street hedge funds
and commodity funds liquidated futures positions to
cover margin calls in stocks and to pay back
borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the
confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point
cut surprised investors because a full 100 basis
point cut was expected. The Department of Energy
reported crude oil inventories were up 133,000
barrels on the week. Crude oil option premiums are
very high.
3/14/08 Crude oil futures prices
hit another all time history of man kind highs again
based on global demand and the crashing US Dollar.
Crude oil futures prices went over $110 a barrel
this week. In the US the DOE report showed another
increase in supplies of 6.2 million barrels and
prices still went up. At some point these prices
will slow demand and prices will come down. Crude
oil option premiums are very high.
3/7/08 Crude oil futures prices
rallied to a new all time high of $106 based on
OPEC's reluctance to increase output during the
typically soft second quarter of the demand season.
Builds in crude oil up 3.1 mm/bbl for the week did
not put the bears in charge. In the bull camp US
missile strikes in Somalia and UN putting more
sanctions on Iran may have added some potential
political tension premium in the market. Crude oil
option premiums are high.
2/29/08 Crude oil futures prices
rallied 12% this month to another all time high of
$102 per barrel based on inflation concerns and
global disruption concerns. Turkey invaded Northern
Iraq. Iran threatened any country that imposes more
sanctions on them would deal with consequences.
There was a militant attack on oil production
facilities in Nigeria. The DOE report showed a large
build in weekly supplies of 3.2 million barrels.
Crude oil option premiums are ridiculous right now.
2/22/08 Crude oil futures prices
rallied to an all time high this week based on
OPEC's decision to not raise production and maybe
cutting production if oil goes below $85 by the
March 5 meeting. The explosion in the Big Spring,
Texas refinery also buoyed crude oil futures prices
this week. That refinery produces around 70,000
barrels a day. Crude oil option premiums are very
high.
2/15/08 Crude oil futures prices
rallied this week based on Hugo Chavez warning that
he wouldn't sell crude oil to the US because of the
Exxon suit. The DOE report showed a build in
supplies that was less than analyst expectations.
This is usually when refiners begin to shift from
heating oil to unleaded gas for the driving demand
season in the Spring and Summer. Crude oil option
premiums are high.
2/8/08 Crude oil futures prices
are trading between $87 and $95 recently. This time
of year is typically soft for energy prices and
stockpiles had an unexpected build of 7 million
barrels this week. Recession fears are also limiting
any runs to the upside. A recession may mean less
people taking a vacation this year and less demand
for unleaded gas. Crude oil option premiums are
high.
2/1/08 Crude oil futures prices
sold off from its all time high of $ 100 to $90. Some
market analyst believe that the world will see
daily demand exceed daily output for the first time
in history and crude oil
futures prices may set new highs. The 1980 crude oil
futures price spike, when factoring in inflation, would
equate to about $102 crude oil futures prices in today's prices.
Crude oil options volatility premium is very high
currently. Crude oil option premiums are high.
-T & K Futures and Options Inc. |
