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8/20/10 Cotton futures prices are still near
contract highs this week as the hot dry weather in
the delta region of the U.S. persists. Also helping
prices is the fact that importers continue to buy
cotton even at these extremely high price levels.
Cotton harvest does not begin until October so tight
supplies will continue until then.
8/13/10 Cotton futures prices are near contract
highs this week as the extremely hot dry weather in
the delta region may hurt cotton yields
significantly. Strong US exports are also helping
cotton prices along with a few upbeat economic
reports around the globe.
8/6/10 Cotton futures prices rallied towards its
highs as the US Dollar continues to weaken which may
increase demand for US cotton. The current supplies
for cotton are tight and the new harvest is still a
couple of months away.
8/2/10 Cotton futures prices rallied again in spite
of an improving crop rating by the USDA and the fact
that almost 11 million acres where planted this
growing season by farmers in the United States and
weather conditions are practically ideal.
7/24/10 Cotton futures prices rallied this week
almost two cents as the US Dollar continues to
weaken and the Asian economies seem to be growing.
Cotton option premiums are high.
7/10/10 Cotton futures prices sold off this week to
a 4 month low. The USDA supply and demand report
showed US ending stocks up from 2.80 to 3.50 million
bales. World ending stocks came in higher from 49.6
to 49.9 million bales. The exports for 2009-10 are
15% below from a year ago levels.
7/2/10 Cotton futures prices sold off this week
after the USDA planted acreage report came in
bearish for cotton. The estimate of 10.91 million
acreas was up 19% from a year ago which is much more
than most traders expected. The recent sell off in
the US Dollar is not holding cotton prices up.
6/24/10 Cotton futures prices rallied again this
week along with many of the other commodity markets
as the US Dollar has been selling off after making
its high above 89 at the beginning of June. The new
crop supplies are still a few months away from
hitting the market.
6/11/10 Cotton futures prices rallied this week as
hot temperatures in Texas may hurt yields. The
recent USDA report showed US ending stocks come down
from 3.0 to 2.8 million bales and world ending
stocks come down from 50.1 to 49.6 million bales.
The stocks to usage ratio is now 17% which is the
lowest in 15 years.
6/4/10 Cotton futures prices sold off this week for
the 5th day in a row. The expectations of a larger
US crop, the rising US Dollar and concerns about
lower world demand are pressuring prices again.
5/28/10 Cotton futures prices sold off this week as
the lack of any problems and weak demand battle with
tight supplies in the US until harvest. The
strengthening US Dollar is also hurting exports.
5/21/10 Cotton futures prices came down with the
rest of the commodity markets this week as the
European problems stemming from Greece and the other
PIIGS are expected to hurt demand for many
commodities. Investors seem to be choosing cash over
stocks and commodities for now. Tight supplies this
summer are helping firm prices some.
5/14/10 Cotton futures prices are trading sideways
this week. The recent USDA supply and demand report
showed US ending stocks at 3 million bales down from
3.1 million bales. The world ending stocks showed 50
million bales down from 53 million bales.
5/7/10 Cotton futures prices sold off this week as
the Greece problems are decreasing investors' risk
appetite and pushing assets into the US Dollar and
US Treasuries. China is expecting tight supplies for
cotton this year.
4/25/10 Cotton futures prices rallied this week as
news from around the globe has been getting better
including the United States. The recent strength in
the US Dollar does not seem to be affecting the
cotton market for now.
4/16/10 Cotton futures prices traded mostly sideways
this week as the US Dollar started to come down a
bit and the news that the SEC charged Goldman Sachs
with fraud pressured many stock and commodity
markets.
4/9/10 Cotton futures prices sold off this week in
spite of the idea that many economies around the
world are gaining strength and the FOMC minutes
spoke of keeping rates low for a while. Cotton
option premiums are high.
3/27/10 Cotton futures prices sold off this week as
the strong US Dollar and the idea that this months
planting intentions report will show lots more
cotton acres helped push the market down this week.
2/26/10 Cotton futures prices rallied again this
week in spite of the stronger US Dollar and weak
economic reports. The market is factoring in tight
supplies until this fall's harvest and the idea that
wet conditions in the south east of the US will see
continued wet conditions that will delay spring
plantings. Cotton options premiums are high.
2/12/10 Cotton futures prices rallied this week as
the USDA report showed a decrease in US ending
stocks from 4.3 to 3.3 million bales and world
ending stocks increased from 51.7 to 52.1 million
bales. The idea that Europe will help Greece with
its financial problems is lending strength to most
of the commodity markets including cotton.
2/5/10 Cotton futures prices came down again this
week with most of the other commodity markets as the
strength in the US Dollar is expected to diminish
demand and the recent attempts by China to tighten
its monetary system is also hurting prices.
1/30/10 Cotton futures prices came down this week
again as the US Dollar remains strong and the
disruptive harvest weather a few months ago doesn't
seemed to have been too much of a factor for less
yields. Cotton option premiums are high.
1/22/10 Cotton futures prices came down again this
week along with the rest of the commodity markets as
the strong US Dollar and the idea that China is
restraining its economy by raising rates and
increasing the minimum reserve requirements that
banks must keep will diminish demand.
1/15/10 Cotton futures prices came down this week as
the USDA supply and demand report showed US ending
stocks come down from 4.50 million bales to 4.30
million bales. Cotton prices sold off to an 8 week
low based on the news and strength in the US Dollar.
1/8/10 Cotton futures prices sold off this week as
the International Cotton Advisory Committee
predicted that world cotton production would be 24.1
million tons for 2010-11 which is up 8% from this
season's production.
1/1/10 Cotton futures prices rose to the yearly
highs this week as the crop expectation coupled with
demand show a tight supply situation for the coming
year. The recent strength in the US Dollar could not
slow the rally in cotton. Cotton options premiums
are high.
12/11/09 Cotton futures prices rose 5 cents this
week as the USDA supply and demand report showed US
ending stocks decrease from 4.90 to 4.50 million
bales and world ending stocks down from 54 to 52
million tons.
12/4/09 Cotton futures prices were up again this
week in spite of the huge rally in the US Dollar on
Friday following the upbeat jobs report and the
potential for interest rates to be raised.
11/28/09 Cotton futures prices hit their highest
prices in 14 months as the weak US Dollar should
help demand from foreign buyers and the wet weather
in many cotton growing areas is expected to hurt
yields and limit supply. Cotton option premiums are
high.
11/20/09 Cotton futures prices rallied this week as
the harvest is behind the 5 year average and the US
Dollar continues to weaken hitting another contract
low this week. Cotton prices are still considered
undervalued by some analysts as cotton prices are
still 50% below their all time highs.
11/13/09 Cotton futures prices rallied to a 13 month
high based on weakness in the US Dollar and strength
in the commodity markets. The recent USDA report
showed US ending stocks of cotton down from 5.40
million bales to 4.90 million bales and world ending
stocks down from 56 million bales go 54 million
bales.
11/6/09 Cotton futures prices are rallying again and
are near the October highs. The weak US Dollar and
strength in the other softs markets may be helping
prices for cotton.
10/24/09 Cotton futures prices are rallying again as
wet weather in the Mississippi Delta region is
hindering harvest and the recent low levels of the
US Dollar are also helping push prices higher.
10/12/09 Cotton futures prices are rallying this
week along with most other commodity markets as the
US Dollar approached 12 month lows on rumors that
many countries are switching away from the US Dollar
as a reserve currency. The recent USDA report showed
US ending stocks of cotton decrease from 5.6 to 5.4
million bales and world ending stocks stay the same
at 56 million tons.
9/25/09 Cotton futures prices rallied as strong
rains in the South East is causing harvest delays.
The recent rally in the US Dollar is limiting
rallies in the cotton market so far.
9/18/09 Cotton futures prices hit a 5 week high as a
forecast for colder temperatures may hurt yields.
Also helping prices are the weakening US Dollar and
the idea that the global economy may be
strengthening.
9/11/09 Cotton futures prices rallied this week
based on the sell off in the US Dollar. The USDA
estimated for US ending stocks stayed the same at
5.6 million bales and the world ending stocks were
reduced from 57 to 56 million tons. Cotton option
premiums are high.
9/4/09 Cotton futures prices are selling off. The
World Trade Organization ruled that Brazil can
impose $295 million of trade sanctions against the
US because of illegal cotton subsidies by the US
government. Cotton option premiums are high.
8/21/09 Cotton futures prices are selling off this
week as the potential global rebound in growth seems
to have stalled for now. Cotton prices are near 57
cents per pound in spite of the weaker US Dollar.
Cotton option premiums are high.
8/7/09 Cotton futures prices are up this week as the
perception of an improving world economy and the
weakening US Dollar are helping many commodities run
higher. Cotton option premiums are high.
7/31/09 Cotton futures prices rose along with the
rest of the commodity sector as the weakening US
Dollar and favorable economic reports may signal and
end to the recession soon. Recent rains in Texas may
help the crop their. Cotton option premiums are
high.
7/20/09 Cotton futures prices are still trading
sideways in spite of the weakening US Dollar and
more positive economic reports such as retail sales
and industrial production. Cotton option premiums
are high.
7/10/09 Cotton futures prices are trading sideways
as the most recent USDA report showed US ending
stocks unchanged at 5.60 million bales and world
ending stocks up from 57 to 58 million tons. Cotton
option premiums are high.
7/4/09 Cotton futures prices were volatile this week
from up limit to selling off as lower planted
acreage is being offset by the strong US Dollar. The
USDA estimate was 9.05 million acres. Cotton option
premiums are high.
6/21/09 Cotton futures prices sold off to a 6 week
low as wet weather may help some moisture starved
parts of the Texas and the US Dollar continued to
rally. Cotton option premiums are high.
6/5/09 Cotton futures prices rallied as China sold
65,422 bales at a price of 84 cents per pound.
Cotton option premiums are high.
5/30/09 Cotton futures prices have been selling off
recently as lower demand from textile mills and high
short term supplies are pressuring prices. Also
hurting prices was the recent news that China sold
two months worth of domestic demand supplies from
their reserves. Cotton option premiums are high.
5/22/09 Cotton futures prices are selling off as
China recently announced that the government was
making cotton reserves available by the end of the
month hinting towards less imports to China. Cotton
option premiums are high.
5/15/09 Cotton futures prices are still high as the
recent USDA report showed US ending stocks down from
6.8 to 5.6 million bales and world ending stocks
down from 62 to 58 million bales. Cotton option
premiums are high.
5/8/09 Cotton futures prices are still flying
higher. Hot dry weather in Texas may hurt the crop
and the potential for China's economy to turn up are
helping cotton prices run higher. Cotton option
premiums are high.
4/30/09 Cotton futures prices are still heading
higher. The most recent rally took cotton to a 5
month high. Farmers are unlikely to plant cotton
unless prices move appreciably higher. Cotton option
premiums are high.
4/23/09 Cotton futures prices have been on a tear
recently and are currently at the 50 cent level. Dry
weather and one of the smallest crops in decades is
helping push prices higher. Cotton option premiums
are high.
4/10/09 Cotton futures prices are rallying to two
month highs as the USDA prospective plantings report
expects cotton acreage to be the lowest in 25 years.
The USDA estimates US ending stocks down from 7.3 to
6.7 million bales. Cotton option premiums are high.
3/27/09 Cotton futures prices are still running
based on dry soil conditions before planting in
Western Texas. Cotton option premiums are high.
3/20/09 Cotton futures prices rallied this week as
inflation may be coming soon following the worst
deflationary cycle since the Great Depression may be
ending. The recent move by the Fed to print a
trillion dollars and then use then to buy treasuries
has significantly weakened the US Dollar. Cotton
option premiums are high.
3/13/09 Cotton futures prices rallied on the USDA
report news that US ending stocks were down 5% to
7.3 million bales and the world ending stocks went
up to 62.5 million bales. Cotton option premiums are
still high.
3/7/09 Cotton futures prices are selling off this
week based on the strong US Dollar and the sell off
in the stock market. Cotton option premiums are
high.
2/27/09 Cotton futures prices are trading sideways
to down this week in spite of excellent sales
figures and the high probability that farmers will
plant soybeans of corn instead of cotton this year.
Cotton option premiums are high.
2/13/09 Cotton futures prices sold off this week as
the USDA report showed US ending stocks up form 6.90
to 7.70 million bales and world ending stocks up
form 59 to 62 million tons. Also hurting prices is
the estimate that cotton consumption is the lowest
in 10 years. Cotton option premiums are high.
2/6/09 Cotton futures prices are trending higher
since November as cotton acres are expected to
decline and futures prices are below the cost of
production. Cotton option premiums are high.
1/30/09 Cotton futures prices are still climbing and
recently had the highest close in 3 months. This
uptrend is still intact based upon expectations that
the South American drought in many growing areas
will push farmers away from cotton and towards corn
and soybeans. The US farmers will probably also
follow suit and plant soybeans and corn at the
expense of cotton. Chinese cotton production is also
expected to fall. Cotton option premiums are high.
1/16/09 Cotton futures prices rallied based on the
high soybean prices may drive more farmers away from
cotton over to soybeans. US ending stocks were down
from 7.1 to 6.9 million bales. Cotton option
premiums are high.
1/10/09 Cotton futures prices rallied recently on a
short covering rally and the idea that commodity
prices may rebound in 2009 based on the lower US
Dollar and inflation. Cotton option premiums are
high.
12/27/08 Cotton futures prices have been stabilizing
near its contract lows as the cost of production is
higher than the current price of cotton. Cotton
option premiums are high.
12/19/08 Cotton futures prices have been reacting to
moves in the US Dollar this week. Weak dollar days
yielding strength in cotton prices and strong dollar
days yielding weakness in cotton prices.
12/12/08 Cotton futures prices rallied with the rest
of the commodity markets this week as the US Dollar
fell from its highs. The USDA estimates the US
ending stocks up from 6.2 to 7.1 million bales.
Cotton option premiums are high.
12/5/08 Cotton futures prices sold off again to
contract lows this week as China and India have
weakening economies. China and India consume 59% of
the world's cotton. The US is sitting on the
smallest crop in 20 years. Cotton option premiums
are high.
11/30/08 Cotton futures prices are rallying from
contract lows with the falling US Dollar. Cotton
option premiums are high.
11/21/08 Cotton futures prices are still coming down
and are over 10 cents below their loan value. The
fact that cotton prices are cheaper than the cost of
production may soon find a bottom in prices. Cotton
option premiums are high.
11/7/08 Cotton futures prices are still coming down
in spite of the tight supplies. The slowing global
economy is hurting demand and crude oil prices
falling along with the strong US Dollar are not
helping either. Cotton option premiums are high.
11/1/08 Cotton futures prices have fallen below the
cost of production based on the weakening outlook
for the global economy and the strong US Dollar.
Liquidation of commodity index funds and falling
crude oil prices are also pressuring cotton prices.
Cotton option premiums are high.
10/24/08 Cotton future prices are still falling as
mills are unwilling to buy for 50 cents or higher
and because of the massive deleveraging that is
still occurring in the stock and commodity markets.
The large repatriation of US Dollars back to the US
is causing the dollar to rally to 3 year highs which
hurts export demand. Cotton option premiums are
high.
10/10/08 Cotton futures prices were down limit after
the USDA report on Friday. Demand destruction,
perception of a global recession and lower crude oil
prices are pressuring prices. The USDA US ending
stocks showed an increase from 4.90 to 6.20 million
bales and the world ending stocks increased from 52
to 55 million tons. Cotton option premiums are still
high.
10/6/08 Cotton futures prices are selling off and
are below the 55 cent level, a contract low. Fears
of a global recession, the scramble for liquidity
and the strong US Dollar are hurting cotton prices.
Cotton option premiums are high.
9/25/08 Cotton futures prices are trading sideways.
However, at the current demand rate the old crop
supplies will be gone in 8 weeks and a tight new
crop is expected. Cotton option premiums are high.
9/19/08 Cotton futures prices sold off to a contract
low as the rush to liquidity caused by the global
financial meltdown is hurting commodities. Cotton
option premiums are high.
9/12/08 Cotton futures prices sold off most of the
week as the USDA estimated that US ending stocks
were at 4.9 million bales up from 4.6 million bales
last month. World ending stocks were at 52 million
bales up from 51 million bales last month. Cotton
has been following crude oil down recently. Cotton
option premiums are high.
9/5/08 Cotton futures prices sold off in spite of
the huge amounts of rain created by Hurricane Gustav
hitting the already soaked cotton fields. The large
lack of demand is shown by the lack of exports.
Cotton option premiums are high.
8/29/08 Cotton futures prices rallied this week
based on the threat of Hurricane Gustav bringing
more rain to the Mississippi and Louisiana crops
that already have too much moisture. Boll rot is
already taking a toll on yields and more rain will
only make it worse. Cotton option premiums are high.
8/22/08 Cotton futures prices rallied this week 3
cents based on the sell off in the US Dollar and the
run up in crude oil prices. The rally may not hold
because exports are down by 35% from a year ago and
beneficial rains are helping the cotton crop. The
recent rally was more about a lack of selling versus
an increase in buying. Cotton option premiums are
high.
8/15/08 Cotton futures prices sold off this week in
spite of the USDA estimates for the US ending stocks
decreasing from 5.30 to 4.60 million bales and the
world ending stocks decreasing from 53 to 51 million
tons. Cotton option premiums are high.
8/8/08 Cotton futures prices have been in a 10 cent
consolidation for a few months now because bearish
news is usually being offset by hot dry weather in
the cotton areas of west Texas. Cotton option
premiums are high.
7/25/08 Cotton futures prices rallied this week as
potential flood damage caused by hurricane Dolly may
impact the Texas cotton crop yields. Cotton option
premiums are high.
7/18/08 Cotton futures prices fell this week in the
wake of the broad based commodity sell off led by
crude oil. Cotton is holding the 70 cent level and
may have bottomed. Cotton option premiums are high.
7/11/08 Cotton futures prices rallied this week
based on the USDA estimates for US ending stocks
declining from 5.40 to 5.30 million bales and the
world ending stocks were decreased from 54 to 53
million bales. Cotton option premiums are high.
7/4/08 Cotton futures prices have been falling this
week based on the yield damage estimates for west
Texas cotton not being as bad as expected. The rally
in the US Dollar late in the week also hurt cotton
prices. Cotton option premiums are high.
6/27/08 Cotton futures prices rallied this week as
only 30% of the Texas crop is rated good to
excellent. Recent rains probably wont help cotton
yields very much. Cotton option premiums are high.
6/20/08 Cotton futures prices
rallied this week as hot dry weather is hurting the
west Texas cotton crop and the USDA reported that
cotton conditions are deteriorating. Weather
forecasts are calling for potential rain over the
weekend in some of the drier areas. Cotton option
premiums are high.
6/13/08 Cotton futures prices
rallied this week along with the other commodities
and because the USDA supply and demand report showed
a decrease in cotton ending stocks from 5.6 to
5.4 million bales. Hot dry weather in Texas is also
helping cotton futures prices stay up. Cotton option
premiums are high.
6/6/08 Cotton future prices
rallied this week because of the fall in the US
Dollar based on talk that the EU will raise interest
rates to fight inflation. Cotton is very dependent
upon exports and a strong dollar typically hurts
prices. Cotton option premiums are high.
5/30/08 Cotton futures prices
are falling again to an 8 month low as the US Dollar
continues to strengthen which should damage export
demand for cotton. Cotton option premiums are high.
5/23/08 Cotton futures prices
are still trading sideways in a tight 3 cent range
for the last few weeks. The USDA reports that 49% of
the cotton is planted. This is down from the five
year average of 59%. The US Commerce Department said
that cotton mill use increased in April from the
rate of 4.2 to 4.7 million bales. Cotton option
premiums are coming down.
5/15/08 Cotton futures prices
are range bound this week. Their has been now real
news to move cotton futures prices and the US Dollar
has begun to weaken a bit. Cotton option premiums
are high.
5/9/08 Cotton futures prices
have been trading mostly sideways this week. The
USDA supply and demand report US ending stocks
estimates came in at 5.60 million bales down from
9.90 million bales in 2007-08. Global ending stocks
are 56 million bales down from 62 million in
2007-08. Cotton option premiums are high.
5/1/08 Cotton futures prices are
still falling based on the strength in the US
Dollar. Higher dollar values hurt cotton exports to
other countries. Cotton acreage is still at decade
lows and any weather events could spur a rally.
Cotton option premiums are high.
4/25/08 Cotton futures prices
dropped this week in sympathy to the overall
commodity market and especially the grains. The
strong US Dollar hurts exports because of higher
prices for foreign buyers. The sell off in crude oil
from the highs also hurts cotton because when crude
oil prices are high textile mills use natural fibers
like cotton instead of manmade petroleum product
fibers like polyester and rayon. Cotton option
premiums are high.
4/18/08 Cotton futures prices
rallied through 80 cents this week only to be hit by
massive profit taking from commodity funds. The USDA
is predicting a 13% drop in planted cotton acres
this year because of favorable pricing in corn,
beans and wheat for farmers. Cotton option premiums
are high.
4/11/08 Cotton futures prices
rallied this week as Walmart bought 12 million
pounds of cotton for earth month t-shirts. Cotton
also lost acres to corn and soybeans and had a huge
week in export sales of 484,000 bales. Cotton option
premiums are still high.
4/4/08 Cotton futures prices are
trading sideways this week even as the USDA
predicted the cotton acres to be down 13% from a
year ago. Cotton futures prices had been on a tear
recently but seemed to have gotten ahead of itself.
The dry weather in cotton growing portions of the
south and TX may boost prices but for now the
cotton market is content with sideways price action.
Cotton option premiums are high.
3/28/08 Cotton futures prices
were consolidating this week and traders were
positioning for the March 31 Prospective plantings
report by the USDA. Expectations are that cotton
acres will shrink because farmers can make more per
acre with soybeans, corn and wheat. Cotton option
premiums are high.
3/21/08 Cotton futures prices
kept falling this week as Wall Street hedge funds
and commodity funds liquidated futures positions to
cover margin calls in stocks and to pay back
borrowed money. The Bear Stearns issue took the
confidence from investors. The Fed's 75 basis point
cut surprised investors because a full 100 basis
point cut was expected. Cotton option premiums are
high.
3/14/08 Cotton futures prices
went limit up for a couple of days and then limit
down. Now prices are consolidating sideways. In 14
years of trading, I have never seen such volatility.
Cotton futures have more price increases to achieve
if farmers are to plant it instead of corn, beans
and wheat. The new low for the US Dollar may help
prices go higher especially if the Federal Reserve
Bank cuts rates again. Cotton option premiums are
ridiculous and some sideways price movement will be
needed to deflate cotton option premiums.
3/7/08 Cotton futures prices
went up limit for 4 days in a row only to sell off
limit the last 2 days. The short futures price
squeeze produced ridiculous option premiums as short
futures holders flooded to the options markets to
offset losses. Cotton option premiums are outrageous
currently.
2/29/08 Cotton futures prices
rallied to contact highs this week based on the
battle for acreage with beans, corn and wheat. The
National Cotton Council predicts that cotton mill
use fell from 4.74 to 4.68 million bushels in
January. Cotton futures prices have the challenge of
rising enough to compete for acreage with other more
profitable agricultural products. The potential 50
basis point rate cut expected by the Fed in March is
also helping prices rise on inflationary fears.
Cotton option premiums are high.
2/22/08 Cotton futures prices
rallied this week the highest close in a month
because cotton looks cheap to speculators compared
to the grains. The USDA planting estimate came out
this week and shows cotton acreage down 12% to 9.5
million acres this year. If this estimate is
correct, that would be the lowest plantings in 25
years. All time highs for crude
oil futures prices also supported the cotton futures
market. Cotton option premiums are getting high.
2/15/08 Cotton futures prices
were up limit on Thursday of this week based on
expectations of very limited acreage being planted
this year. The USDA projected cotton production for
2008-9 is expected to be down 9%. The soybean to
cotton ratio of 10 to 1 is one way that farmers
decide what crop to plant. It is usually 3 to 1 for
corn to soybeans. The 10 to 1 ratio would
necessitate cotton futures prices going up over a
dollar. The soft commodities have definitely
outperformed most other commodities this year and still seem
undervalued vs. the rest of the commodity market.
Cotton option premiums are above average.
2/8/08 Cotton futures prices
rallied in sympathy with the grains and because the
USDA says that exports are better than expected.
Cotton futures prices have been consolidating around
70 cents for the last few weeks. High crude oil
prices helps cotton demand because synthetic fibers
such as polyester, nylon and rayon are petroleum
based and are expensive compared to cotton. Cotton option
premiums are above average.
2/1/08 Cotton futures prices are
trading sideways this week waiting for next Friday's
USDA report. Currently the US cotton planted acreage
estimates are near an 18 year low as farmers are
paid more to plant corn, beans and wheat at the
expense of cotton. Cotton futures prices rallied to
$1.17 the last time that global supplies where this
low. Cotton option premium is above average.
-T & K Futures and Options Inc. |
